An arbitrage-free surface fitted to the public book, published alongside how wrong it is. No key, no vendor feed, nothing you cannot recompute. The rest of this category ships a picture and a footnote saying the numbers are estimates.
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in BTC, so prices are in the coin and converted on the forward. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.13 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 10 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 19 | 0.62 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 23 | 0.80 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-24 | 3.7 | 27 | 0.90 | 89% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 42 | 1.54 | 79% | checked |
| 2026-11-06 | 16.7 | 18 | 0.40 | 89% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 48 | 0.68 | 67% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 57 | 0.51 | 82% | checked |
| 2027-03-26 | 156.7 | 52 | 0.65 | 42% | checked |
| 2027-06-25 | 247.7 | 54 | 0.53 | 83% | checked |
| 2027-09-24 | 338.7 | 42 | 0.25 | 88% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in ETH, so prices are in the coin and converted on the forward. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.17 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 10 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 27 | 1.12 | 96% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 26 | 0.74 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-24 | 3.7 | 28 | 0.69 | 89% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 37 | 0.69 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-11-06 | 16.7 | 15 | 0.34 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 36 | 0.35 | 92% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 44 | 1.02 | 98% | checked |
| 2027-03-26 | 156.7 | 42 | 0.66 | 71% | checked |
| 2027-06-25 | 247.7 | 43 | 0.29 | 95% | checked |
| 2027-09-24 | 338.7 | 39 | 0.28 | 97% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDC, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.25 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 5 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 13 | 1.17 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 19 | 1.49 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 46 | 1.40 | 98% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 79 | 0.61 | 99% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 73 | 0.84 | 95% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDC, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.20 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 5 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 10 | 1.15 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 17 | 0.68 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 41 | 1.07 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 44 | 2.65 | 98% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 40 | 1.19 | 100% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDC, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.13 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 5 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 15 | 1.90 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 21 | 1.68 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 38 | 4.09 | 97% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 34 | 1.11 | 94% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 51 | 1.37 | 86% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDC, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.04 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 5 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 8 | 0.62 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 10 | 1.38 | 80% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 28 | 1.22 | 50% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 30 | 1.27 | 13% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 25 | 0.71 | 16% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDC, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.14 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 5 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 20 | 2.24 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 16 | 2.92 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 46 | 2.39 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 39 | 1.35 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 28 | 3.17 | 96% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDT, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.33 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 9 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 25 | 2.39 | 24% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 25 | 4.49 | 36% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 38 | 1.70 | 29% | checked |
| 2026-11-06 | 16.7 | 30 | 1.23 | 27% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 30 | 0.68 | 10% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 36 | 6.09 | 25% | checked |
| 2027-03-26 | 156.7 | 37 | 5.84 | 62% | checked |
| 2027-06-25 | 247.7 | 28 | 4.43 | 93% | checked |
| 2027-09-24 | 338.7 | 26 | 0.50 | 100% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDT, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.14 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 9 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 27 | 1.80 | 30% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 34 | 3.04 | 44% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 30 | 2.76 | 13% | checked |
| 2026-11-06 | 16.7 | 17 | 4.80 | 59% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 23 | 1.06 | 43% | checked |
| 2026-12-25 | 65.7 | 36 | 5.83 | 72% | checked |
| 2027-03-26 | 156.7 | 29 | 1.92 | 48% | checked |
| 2027-06-25 | 247.7 | 21 | 3.01 | 100% | checked |
| 2027-09-24 | 338.7 | 22 | 1.84 | 100% | checked |
Our arbitrage-checked curve against the venue's own marks, inside the quoted spread. Where the orange sits outside the grey band, the venue is marking a price you could not trade at.
Our fitted volatility interpolated at the forward, one point per listed expiry. A hollow point failed a no-arbitrage check and comes from the backbone instead of the refined slice, which is why it can sit away from its neighbours.
Quoted in USDT, so prices are already in dollars. Our implied volatilities agree with the venue's own marks to 0.82 volatility points at the median, near the money, which is how a confused convention would show up.
Published because nobody else in this category publishes it. Error is the root-mean-square gap between our fitted volatility and the mid of the quoted spread. Compare venues on the error, not on the inside-the-spread share: a surface cannot thread a spread narrower than its own error, so that share says as much about how tightly a venue quotes as about how well anything fits it. On this chain 5 expiries were fitted. A slice marked otherwise failed a no-arbitrage check and fell back to the backbone, which is arbitrage-free by construction.
| Expiry | Days | Quotes | Error, vol pts | Inside spread | No-arbitrage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 1.7 | 18 | 127.79 | 72% | checked |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.7 | 24 | 35.17 | 38% | checked |
| 2026-10-30 | 9.7 | 27 | 16.48 | 78% | checked |
| 2026-11-06 | 16.7 | 21 | 3.95 | 100% | checked |
| 2026-11-27 | 37.7 | 24 | 5.28 | 67% | checked |